The Great British Pandemic Experiment

 Like it or not, on 19th July many if not all of our social restrictions that have been used to manage the pandemic in the UK will be swept away. 'Freedom Day', some are calling it (unwisely, in my view). The government believe it is necessary, because of non-COVID problems such as a rise in mental health issues and the toll of the long months without 'normal' social contact. Others murmur dark and ominous predictions suggesting that it will be a disaster, with Delta-variant COVID infections still increasing and the younger third of our population not fully vaccinated. Not for the first time, our country is divided about our response to world events.

But you could argue that the whole of our pandemic response from August 2020 onwards has been a giant experiment, unintentional it is true, but powerful as a guide to the rest of the world. First we selected seven vaccines which we would pre-order large supplies of, and began organising what would end up being an extraordinary roll-out of vaccination to the entire population. Five of these vaccines have been approved for use, though the vast majority of people have been vaccinated with two of them - the Pfizer and the Astrazenica/Oxford vaccines which were the first two to be approved in the UK. We muddled through the second (Alpha variant) wave, vaccinating madly in an attempt to bring it under control, and using the established methods of lockdown restrictions on top, though rather inconsistently. Perhaps surprisingly, and certainly annoyingly for some of our less-than-friendly neighbours, this largely worked. A four-step road map to ditching all restrictions was drawn up and to begin with adhered to fairly closely. 

Then came the vastly more infections Delta variant, which ripped through India's barely vaccinated population and has gone on to wreak devastation in other areas of the world as well. The dilemma for government and scientists in the face of this new threat is a real one: to open up or to stay partially closed until everyone is vaccinated. I think it is not surprising that there have been deeply held and forcefully presented arguments on both sides. But the truth of it is that we do not actually know what will happen. So far we have proved to the rest of the world that vaccines are a very good way to mitigate the consequences of endemic COVID, at least for a country that does not wish (and perhaps economically cannot afford) to close its borders as New Zealand, for example, has successfully done. Most other countries are following our example as fast as vaccine supplies allow. But other variants might emerge, in the immense pool of infected people there now is globally, that will find a way to circumvent vaccines. We can 'tweak' vaccines, especially the Pfizer and Moderna rNA types, relatively quickly to combat this, but not overnight, and not with absolute certainty. 

So it is a calculated risk to open up - perhaps not quite a gamble, because there is good science as well as economic and social argument for it, but certainly not without the possibility of serious consequences. What is interesting, however, is that not only the UK but the world is deeply divided about the policy. In reality, they should all be applauding - because only by experiment can we learn anything in a new situation of which no one has any experience. The UK vaccine experiment - supported almost without exception by most people in the country, and even the pockets of so-called vaccine resistance are shrinking rapidly - has shown the world that vaccines are safe, in the main (no medical intervention is ever totally safe) and effective. If the UK easing of restrictions while completing the vaccine programme turns out to be the best thing that could have been done, the rest of the world will probably follow suit, as and when their vaccine position allows. If another variant arises and vaccines are no longer sufficient to combat COVID - which could happen but could also not happen - then the rest of the world will take more care, and find different ways to deal with it. What is really unfair and unjustified is to criticise us for making a bold decision. The world needs this experiment, as it needed the original vaccine one, which the NHS has rolled out par excellence and perhaps only as a national health service could, impartially, freely and allowing no one to jump the queue. The rest of the world should be grateful - and history may well show that they will be.