Reading in The
Guardian that the need for minerals to use in the production of electric
cars is driving undersea mining, and that this mining is likely to be
disruptive to an already threatened marine environment, prompted me to offer an
alternative theory. Unfortunately it does not offer any easy solutions to
global pollution and climate change, but if I am correct it means that we are
diving off down a dead end route which will not actually solve any of the
problems.
First of
all, I continue to be slightly sceptical that the current upward trends in
global temperatures are totally anthropogenic in nature. Warming periods have
come and gone throughout Earth’s long and turbulent history, and historically
we are overdue for the next ice age, a phenomenon which seems from the
available paleontology evidence to have been preceded on each occasion by a
very warm period. (Think, for example, of the evidence that there were wild hippopotamuses
in London 125,000 years ago.) Suggestions
that the ocean currents may be changing in the North Atlantic as a result of
ice-sheet melt in Canada may be an indication that this is still a possibility.
One thing
that we can definitely say, however, is that human generation of energy has
exploded in the last two centuries. The whole question of carbon and other
greenhouse gases pales by comparison – does it matter how we generate energy if
consuming it will, by the law of thermodynamics, create heat? Is it irrelevant
that cities and big towns, with their large populations all consuming energy,
are noticeably warmer than rural areas? It seems too much a matter of common
sense (and science often flies in the face of common sense perfectly
legitimately), but I have found no sign of anyone, scientist or not,
considering this possibility publicly. Is this because it is a mad idea with
nothing to recommend it, or because (unscientifically) the whole of climate
science has become obsessed with greenhouse gases to the exclusion of other
possibilities for global warming explanations.
Ultimately,
whatever we do, like many climate scientists I doubt whether it is actually
possible for humanity to prevent rising temperatures to the extent we would
need to in order to avoid such problems as the inundation of low-lying land
across the globe and the consequent displacement of its inhabitants.
Preparedness for many eventualities seems the best thing to focus on. What they
are likely to be would also be a better focus for scientific research and
speculation than a continuous procession of new climate models and
ever-more-doom-laden scenarios. People respond best to hope via positive
action; doing what we can actually do and having some success in it, rather
than becoming depressed because what we are trying to do is futile in the face
of Earth’s mechanisms.
Instead of
mining minerals to make electric engines to replace oil-burning ones, or
accepting that more energy will be needed for an expanding population for whom
modern means of communication and living require more and more electric power for
more and more devices, should we in fact be majoring on reducing power
consumption and making all electrical goods more fuel-efficient? Is it better,
for example, to buy a really economical petrol engined vehicle rather than an
electric one that consumes more energy, even in an apparently more
environmentally friendly form? This is a question that we should be debating, I
think, and at least some research resources should be devoted to it. If another
ice age comes (and they can arrive quickly in climate terms), we shall need to
have fuel-efficient technologies at the ready if we are not to freeze to death.
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